All Europe Ruined If Big War Comes.

New York Times 100 years ago today, November 17, 1912:
So Declares Edmond Théry, Pointing Out That Credit Smash Would Result.
WORLD COULDN'T ALLOW IT
Social and Economic Welfare of the Entire Continent Would Be Involved In the Catastrophe.
Special Cable to The New York Times.
    PARIS, Nov. 16.— Under the heading, "What a Great European War Would Really Be," Edmond Théry, President of the Association of The Economic and Financial Press, has just published an important article, which deals with the matter from the standpoint of its effect on the world's business.
    "The war in Eastern Europe reproduces," he says, "on a very small scale the horrible spectacle that Europe would present if the great military nations came to a conflict. Instead of being fought between small standing armies, as formerly, such a war would engage real national armies, including the whole of the able-bodied citizens of the countries concerned. Such a conflict it is impossible to allow, since it would be a war of extermination in the most frightful sense of the word, one which would ruin all the nations of Europe without any distinction, and which would set back civilization for more than a century.
    "Regarding it simply from the standpoint of economics and finance, it must not be forgotten that the whole edifice of civilization, social progress, and human well-being rests on public credit, which is the most fragile thing in the world.
    "I estimate that Europe possesses at present about £150,000,000,000 nominal capital in public securities, representing together the producing plant, the working capital of trade, commerce and agriculture, reserves for the future. &c.
    "These securities increase annually by four to five thousand millions, and from the ease with which they can be converted into money, circulate from hand to hand, just like coinage. The same thing applies to bank notes, checks, and bills of exchange.
    "Now, in ordinary times this organization functions marvelously well because coin circulates infinitely more quickly than the contracts which represent it, so that in the same date it can effect settlements fifteen or twenty times more than its own intrinsic value. Once, however, grave international complications arise, the swiftness of gold circulation decreases through the natural tendency of those who hold it at the moment to retain it. And when one remembers that there is not more than seven or eight thousand million dollars in gold in Europe, and a good third of this is locked up in the strong rooms of the government banks, some idea may be obtained of the immensity of the catastrophe which a war breaking out between the principal nations of this continent would produce on their public credit.
    "In 1870, the entire mass of securities and other credit instruments was certainly less, than a third of what it is at present. The whole gold currency was at least, six thousand millions.
    "Moreover, the press exercised nothing like the immense influence on public opinion which it wields to-day.
    "At the first announcement of a great continental war all the capitalists would seek at the same time to realize the greatest possible proportion of their securities, and that at the very moment when nobody would want to buy them. This is what happened on a very small scale when the Japanese torpedoed the Russian fleet at Port Arthur, also on the 12th of October last.
    "To resume, the mere prospect of a European war would work such havoc in all ranks of society, and would so endanger the whole economic and social interests of Europe, that it is impossible to admit that the governments would not, before it was too late, find means to avoid it, to-morrow and for always."