Call Flight Impossible.

New York Times 100 years ago today, April 2, 1913:
Army Officers Say Northcliffe Prize Cannot Be Won — Yet.
Special to The New York Times.
    WASHINGTON, April 1.— Officers of the army and navy having to do with the possibilities of the airship in time of war were deeply impressed to-day by Lord Northcliffe's offer of $50,000 to the first airman to cross the Atlantic Ocean in seventy-two consecutive hours. Brig. Gen. George P. Scriven. Chief Signal Officer of the army, discussed the conditions of the trial with a correspondent of The New York Times this afternoon, and, while he admitted that under perfect conditions of wind and water the feat might be accomplished at the present time, gave it as his belief that over the northern seas such a flight was practically impossible. He added, however, that he thought eventually airships would undoubtedly traverse the ocean from shore to shore.
    Gen. Scriven was evidently much impressed with the magnitude of the task for which so large a prize was offered. His first comment was on the terrible danger of such a flight, with airships at their present stage of development. Then he called in Lieut. Henry H. Arnold, himself an expert sailor of the skies, and the two discussed informally the statistics involved in a voyage by hydroaeroplane over a distance that under most favorable conditions must exceed 2,000 miles.
    "It is a great undertaking," said Gen. Scriven, "and eventually it can be done. But it involves tremendous risk at the present time. Necessarily the airship will have to receive additional fuel on the voyage, and fogs, high winds, or darkness will make it impossible for her to find her supply ship, if any of these adverse conditions prevail when the supply of gas and oil is exhausted, there will be nothing for the aeroplane but to take to the water and stay there until found."
    Gen. Scriven and Lieut. Arnold estimated that on a single straightaway flight at the normal airship speed of sixty miles an hour — which is about two-thirds of the engine speed possible to-day — from forty-two to fifty hours would he required for the journey. As motors are now constructed this trip would require 1,700 pounds of gasoline and 250 pounds of oil — manifestly more than the hydroaeroplane could carry along with its two passengers. The record endurance flight so far is that of M. Fourny of France, who flew for thirteen hours, without a passenger, at an average rate of forty-nine miles an hour. If that record could be repeated three times in succession by a single airship carrying an additional passenger, Lord Northcliffe's prize might be won, said the officers; but evidently they do not think such a record-breaking flight can be made as yet.
    "While a hydroaeroplane can now alight with safety on a calm sea and rise from the water again into the air. Gen. Scriven says that under normal conditions a modern aeroplane would not be able to withstand the seas certain to be encountered in any one of the three necessary alightings for fuel. A new type of hydroplane float, or pontoon, would be necessary to make an alighting in a rough sea even moderately safe.
    "It is a most hazardous undertaking," said the General. "The chief dangers are night, fog, and finding the consort ship. It is extremely difficult for airmen to keep any sort of idea of where they are. In the southern seas, where the weather is generally fair and where there are few ships to confuse the airmen, the task would be easier. But in the northern seas, where fogs prevail and there are many ships, it would be almost impossible for the flyers to find the ship they wanted for supplies. To tell you the truth, as things now stand I don't think the voyage can be made."
    Gen. Scriven added that the only advantage of a foggy sea is that the water beneath the fog is generally calm.