Hope of Peace Abandoned.

New York Times 100 years ago today, October 13, 1912:
Special Cable to The New York Times.
    LONDON, Oct. 12.— The close of a disturbing week has brought no lifting of the clouds which envelop the Balkan Situation, nor have the reassuring declarations by Count Berchtold, the Austrian Premier, appreciably cleared the horizon, so far as the greater powers are concerned.
    All the Continental Bourses were greatly depressed to-day. The London Stock Exchange remained under the shadow of heavy Continental selling, consols dropping to 73.
    Even the most confirmed optimists have almost abandoned hope of that diplomatic miracle which Emperor Francis Joseph of Austria spoke of a week ago. Judging by the tone of the collective note of the powers, which was delivered to the Porte Thursday and was made public to-day, it would require superhuman faith to expect any miracle from European diplomacy.
    The weakness and baldness of the collective note is generally taken as the true measure of the much-talked-of concert of the powers. Turkey's real response to that is now seen in the Sultan's proclamation ordering a general mobilization of the army. The Turkish Council of Ministers will doubtless give polite consideration to the collective note and return a polite answer, which means nothing.
    The long delay of the Balkan States in replying to the collective note, addressed to them by the powers, is likewise an indication that the answer which will eventually be returned will be nothing more than a diplomatic plea of inability to abide by it. Whatever the terms of the replies on both sides may be couched in, it is thought beyond the realms of possibility that they will leave any loophole for further diplomatic action of the tame and impotent character on which the great powers have thus far relied to maintain peace, and that only by the arbitrament of war can the destinies of the Balkans henceforth be decided.
    The danger that the war may become general is now universally recognized. John L. Garvin says in this morning's Observer:
    "So begins, then, a war which seems certain at this hour to set the Balkans ablaze. It may light a conflagration, enwrapping all Europe, unless the powers are more vigorous and agreed in grappling with their larger task than they have been in dealing with the lesser.
    "We do not wish to use alarmist language, but there are occasions, and this is one, when no human language could be so alarming as the real possibilities, and when mankind must be thoroughly awake to the nature of the impending perils, if it means to avoid them.
    "War, even if localized, must result in a diplomatic settlement, which in itself may be more important and more dangerous than war.
    "The alternative to Armageddon may be a European congress, the most important of its kind since the congress of Vienna, which settled the map of the Continent for a generation, and influenced profoundly all subsequent diplomatic history up to the present day.
    "In the present state of international affairs, such an assembly, once summoned together, might take an altogether unexpected scope, extending beyond the Eastern question. The proper but vital and critical task of such a congress would be to harmonize the interests and claims of Austria and Russia. Upon a compromise and agreement between these two empires, and upon nothing else, depends the peace of Europe."
    Mr. Garvin concludes in an optimistic note:
    "When the urgent reality and the colossal magnitude of the dangers are so plain, it is almost impossible to believe that means will not be found to avert them.
    "In spite of all, Europe may be plunged into a catastrophe unknown for a hundred years. The great war, which has been the nightmare of civilized thought for forty years, may at last come, largely because of the benumbing influence of a general reluctance to believe that it can come.
    "Adjustment will not be easy. We think, nevertheless, that the Balkan war will be localized, and that in the sequel, in spite of threatening moments, the peace of Europe will be preserved.
    "The failure of the Porte in the present circumstances to conclude peace at any sacrifice with Italy seems nothing short of a stroke of madness in turning the command of the sea altogether against Turkey and provoking Italian military intervention in the Balkan war. That single error might conceivably prove to have sealed the doom of the Ottoman Empire in Europe.
    "Italian action in this sense would not improve the chances of peace for Europe at large in any case. Turkish triumph or Turkish defeat will, of itself, afford no solution of the Eastern question. Whatever the denouement of the military drama or the final issue of the diplomatic sequel, many things in Europe will never be the same again after the incalculable arbitrament of arms."