How The Crisis Originated.

New York Times 100 years ago today, October 3, 1912:
Complicated Situation a Result of the Turkish-Italian War.
    When, just four years ago, Bulgaria declared her entire independence of Turkey, and Servia threatened Austria-Hungary with war on account of the absorption by the latter of Bosnia and Herzegovina, messages of alliance were exchanged between Belgrade, Sofia, Cettinjé, and Bucharest, but these messages came to nothing, as Germany, inspired by her ally, Austria-Hungary, caused Russia to call off Servia and her at least moral ally, Montenegro.
    Since then the Balkan States have been drawing nearer together, with the knowledge and support of Russia, and with this support both Bulgaria and Montenegro have changed principalities to kingdoms.
    At the beginning of the Italo-Turkish war a year ago all was apparently tranquil in the Balkans, and except in Montenegro, where the father-in-law of King Victor Emmanuel III. of Italy reigned, there was little enthusiasm at the progress of the Italian arms in Tripoli.
    In ten months all was changed. The Government in Constantinople, set up by the Committee of Union and Progress of the Young Turk Party, had failed to carry out the reforms promised to the powers for Macedonia and Albania. Soon there were the old tales of atrocities that had made lurid the days of Abdul Hamid.
    It has been shown, however, that atrocities in Macedonia usually followed in the wake of a Bulgar filibustering expedition into that vilayet, while the Montenegrins were not entirely guiltless in urging the Albanians to revolt. Soon the tension between Sofia and Cettinjé and Constantinople became strained, and there were armed demonstrations in Eastern Roumelia and on the Montenegrin frontier. In July Athens became suddenly alive to the state of affairs by the descent of some Turkish irregulars across the frontier of Thessaly.
    Two events soon cemented the interests of the Balkan States and Greece still closer. Italy had carried the war into the Aegean Sea, and by the middle of August was in the possession of twelve islands whose Greek population welcomed the invaders. One of these, Rhodes, formally petitioned the Italian Government to be annexed to Greece. It was about that time that Count Leopold Berchtold, who had in February succeeded the late Count von Aehrenthal as the Austro-Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs, conceived the idea of urging the powers to bring the Italo-Turkish war to a close. He sounded the chancelleries of Europe, including Constantinople, with the formula that Italy should receive the territory she had captured in North Africa, but should return the Aegean Islands to Turkey,
    Thus the fact that Vienna might play an important role in settling the affairs of Turkey, coupled with the danger of having the Greek populations of the Aegean returned to the cruelties of Moslem dominion, caused Athens to come to an understanding with Sofia and Cettinjé, which was no secret to Belgrade and Bucharest. Rumania, however, owing to King Charles's affiliations with Berlin, had managed so far to steer clear of all complications, although, on account of the prevailing religion, the sympathy of the population is naturally with Greece.
    However, Count Berchtold's efforts amounted to nothing. Paris and London were indifferent to his scheme. Berlin cordially received it. Russia's attitude plainly showed that the Czar's Government favored Italy. Constantinople rejected the scheme without comment.
    Such was the condition in the chancelleries of the powers and in the peninsula — in the latter aggravated every day by conflicts with the Turkish soldiery in Macedonia and Thessaly and along the Bulgarian, Servian, and Montenegrin frontiers — when both Sofia and Belgrade heard that Count Berchtold had launched a new scheme for bringing the war to an end, which would not only save the face of the Turk but wake him more formidable than ever in the Balkans. It is a scheme which is said to take full note of the weakness of the Triple Alliance in the Mediterranean, made so by the substitution of the French for the English fleet in those waters. Naturally it is opposed in London, Paris, and St. Petersburg.
    Thus the gathering of the forces of the Balkans is an attempt to anticipate what action the chancelleries may take, locally inspired, of course, by the Turkish atrocities on the frontiers of the various kingdoms.
    In this demonstration Bulgaria with its population of nearly 5,000,000 and its ability to put 375,000 men in the field naturally takes the lead. This army is drilled according to Russian tactics. Every Bulgar, whatever his religion or race (the national faith is the Orthodox Greek Church and 400,000 of the population are Turks), is liable to military service. This is also true of the other Balkan kingdoms. In time of war the nine divisions of the army which always occupy strategic positions are automatically expanded from the peace footing of 53,000 to 375,000.
    The strategic position of Servia is much better against Austria than Turkey. The Servian race, however, is not confined to the population in the country proper, numbering 2,688,025, but expands into Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, and even into Rumania. The country proper is the most densely populated of any of the Balkan kingdoms, having 133 habitants to the square mile. Servia is able to put a force of 130,000 men in the field. Although it gets its arms from Germany its soldiers are, like those of Bulgaria, drilled according to Russian tactics.
    Next comes Montenegro with a population of only 230,000, one-quarter of whom can bear arms. There is no regular army and the tactics are those of the Boers, but a basis for army organization is to be found in their rifle clubs or militia units.
    Should Rumania with its mixed population of 6,585,000 join the other Kingdoms it could place in the field an army of 170,000.
    Greece has a population of over 2,000,000, and although military service is compulsory and universal and she has on paper an effective force of 23,600, it is doubtful whether its paper war footing of 50,000 men would materialize owing to the ravages of malaria, to which, on a campaign, the modem Greek falls an easy victim.
    Omitting Rumania on the northeast and Greece on the southwest, there are at present mobilized against Turkey's four army corps stationed in the "inspections" of Eastern Roumalia, Macedonia, and Albania, the huge force of 560,000 allied troops.
    There are two contingencies which may serve to restrain the allied Balkan forces from invading Turkey. One is the fear of an Austrian and German invasion over the Orient Railway that pierces the Balkans at Belgrade and proceeds southeasterly through Sofia, Philippopolis, and on to Constantinople. The other is the coming Winter which would put a stop to all campaigning except along the routes of travel, where the Turks would have a distinct advantage owing to the fact of their base of supplies in the south.