The European Peril.

New York Times 100 years ago today, October 14, 1912:
    The five European Powers, having failed in their tardy effort to prevent war in the Balkans, are now facing a task of even greater magnitude and portent — that of "localizing" the struggle. In effect, this means keeping the peace with each other, refraining from taking any advantage of the troubles of Turkey or of those which are sure to come on the four relatively little nations which are attacking Turkey. How very hard this task may be is shown by two facts. One is that Italy, one of the most important parties to the Triple Alliance, is actually waging war on Turkey, and is seeking to impose hard terms of peace by a threat to land a heavy force from the Aegean on the left flank of the Turkish armies moving to resist the armies of the Balkan States. The second is that Austria-Hungary is taking steps to occupy Novi Bazar, the little enclave that lies between her own boundaries and those of Servia and Bulgaria. To some degree these two movements, should they be carried out, would, so far as the immediate struggle is concerned, offset each other, but as signs of the peril of dissensions among the Powers they are equally disquieting.
    The hope of the maintenance of peace in Europe since the troublesome events in the Near East has avowedly rested on the apparent readiness of the Powers of the Triple Alliance and those of the Triple Entente to work together, each group recognizing that the existence of the other made for the preservation of an effective balance. It was in this spirit that Russia, on the one hand, and Austria-Hungary, on the other, were intrusted with the immediate charge of carrying out the terms of the note presented to Turkey and to the assailants of Turkey. Much importance was attached to this fact in the discussion of the action of the five Powers and its probable effect. But now that we have Italy threatening increased aggression on Turkey, and Austria-Hungary moving her troops near to the border of Servia, the situation is distinctly more threatening. It may be, indeed, that the menace by Italy will effect its purpose and that Turkey will make peace promptly. And it may be, if this be done, that a part of the peace agreement may be an understanding with Italy that will aid Turkey in the long run.
    That, however, will not necessarily clear the situation as between the European Powers, or tend to maintain peace among them. It may, indeed, have the opposite effect. It is not to be denied that there are very serious differences of interest and aim between Italy and Austria-Hungary. The latter has long been working for the ultimate possession of a foothold and a port on the Mediterranean. To Italy it has now become a matter of essential importance that there shall be only friendly Powers on the Mediterranean. She has planted herself on the north coast of Africa at very great cost of money and no small loss of life. To carry out the work thus undertaken she must have free passage from the peninsula across the Mediterranean. At present the only two great Powers with possessions on that sea are France and England, and they, though members of the rival group, are friendly and quite ready to become more so. What would happen if next year, when the Triple Alliance must be renewed, Italy should remain outside it, or come to an understanding with the  members of the Entente? We may be sure that that is a contingency which engages the anxious attention of Austria-Hungary and of Germany, and is regarded with quite other feelings by Russia, Great Britain, and France.
    There is thus a very complex and difficult situation with reference to the maintenance of the peace of Europe. The only really encouraging feature in it is the immense need that all the Powers have for peace. They are armed to the teeth, and their armor is a dreadful burden. It is nothing to the crushing weight that actual war would impose even on the victors. It seems incredible in view of the fact that the resources of statesmanship should not be equal to the task of preventing that catastrophe.