Crisis Menaces All Europe.

New York Times 100 years ago today, October 13, 1912:
Harold Spender Shows How Powers Brought It On.
Special Cable to The New York Times.
    LONDON, Oct 12.— At the invitation of The New York Times Harold Spender, who one day may be British Ambassador to the United States, has contributed the following article on the Balkan crisis and the question of its development in the direction of peace or a war into which greater powers than the five nations of the southeastern peninsula of Europe may be drawn. Mr. Spender is peculiarly well qualified to discuss the subject from a diplomatic point of view, for it is no breach of confidence to state that his relations with Sir Edward Grey, the Foreign Secretary, are of the closest character, and he has recently been acting as a mouthpiece of the Foreign Office in the British press, although not altogether in sympathy with its policy.

By HAROLD SPENDER.
    Once more all the wise have been confounded, for a crisis in the Near East has come upon Europe as an almost complete surprise. The league of Balkan States was formed with such complete secrecy that the fact was scarcely known, and its extent was certainly not realized in any of the chancelleries of Europe.
    The Balkan Ministers in London do not themselves yet know the terms of the present understanding, but the American public will be safe in assuming that the Balkan agreement is a firm compact between the four States — Bulgaria, Servia, Montenegro, and Greece. They will support one another in case of war and will negotiate together in case of peace. Calculations, of coming disunion between the Balkan States are likely to be wholly dispelled, for the four Christian Governments in the Near East have prepared for everything and have foreseen everything. They have even, I believe, arranged for a possible partition of Macedonia between their respective countries in case of victory in the war.
    You have here, therefore, a sudden appearance in Europe of the new and most formidable corporate power, the Balkan federation. As long as these four States — Servia, Bulgaria, Greece, and Montenegro — acted separately they were powerless. As long as they could be stirred up to mutual quarrels, and even mutual slaughter, by agents of Turkey or the powers they were playing a game as foolish as it was wicked.
    All that was needed for Europe was that she should stand by and look on. Even the cry of humanity, so powerful in 1877, was practically taken away from the Christians by the horrible atrocities perpetrated by Greeks and Bulgars a few years ago.
    Murder in Macedonia has ceased to be regarded as a breach of the Eighth Commandment. Instead of action, we had nerveless proposals, written in vanishing ink. Scheme succeeded scheme and programme succeeded programme, like ghosts in "Macbeth," and with little more reality.
    The plain fact is that up to last week neither the powers nor Turkey ever actually contemplated doing anything at all. It always seemed, in the end, more to their interest that the reign of murder should go on rather than that the Macedonian question should really have to be decided once and for all.
    Now Europe is faced with the Nemesis of this conduct. The moral authority of the powers has disappeared. Having absolutely neglected the duties of its guardianship, the powers find themselves thrown over by their own wards. Those wards suddenly stand erect and face the world upright, claiming the right to conduct their own affairs.
    "Who would be free, themselves must strike the blow," sang Byron, and that is the watchword of the Balkan uprising. The Balkan States are of age. They will keep their houses in order themselves.
    The cowardice of the powers has defeated itself and has instantly precipitated this new fact of a Balkan federation. A most surprising countermove, it has brought back into instant and actual life the old European concert.
    Up to the end of last week Europe was divided into two hostile camps, the Triple Alliance and the Triple Entente, but within three days of the Balkan events, those two camps had coalesced and Europe had become one.
    M. Sazonoff, the Russian Foreign Minister, who happened to be in Western Europe, had arranged with France and England. France had arranged with Austria-Hungary, and Austria-Hungary had brought Germany behind her.
    All the powers had come together, and the first musical performance of the new concert was a symphony of joint notes into the ears of the Balkan States and Turkey. These notes took a considerable number of hours in preparing, and for several days the wires hummed between the capitals of Europe.
    Speaking broadly, Russia and France were in favor of kindness to the Balkan States and severity to Constantinople. Austria-Hungary was in favor of severity to the Balkan States and kindness to Constantinople, while Great Britain stood somewhere in between, and Germany supported Austria-Hungary. The final result was that after many emendations notes were composed which were brave to the weak and cautious to the strong.
    Perhaps the most dramatic-exhibition of that tendency, was the fact that the notes were delivered first to the little man, the Balkans, and afterward to the big man, the Turk. To the Balkans the hope was small and the threat was big. To the Turk the threat was small and the hope had become little more than a timid whisper.
    It is scarcely to be expected that a concert of this kind is going to stop war, or is going to reform Eastern Europe. It is a concert held together by a negation. The only bond is the bond of fear, and that fear is mainly mutual fear.
    There is no leading spirit in the concert. Russia is held back from her Slav sympathies by the fear of her revolution. Great Britain is checked by suspicion of Germany, who has been attempting for the last ten years to oust British influence from Constantinople. Austria-Hungary is anxious about Russia. Behind the harmonies one can hear screeching discords, quarrelsome scrapings, and even angry altercations among the musicians.
    Such is the new concert of Europe. This mutual fear may be strong enough to hold the European powers together for a time, for it is really a very serious fear. It centres around the one notorious fact, the rivalry of Austria-Hungary and Russia in the southeast of Europe.
    Russia, it will be remembered, only acquiesced in the annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina four years ago after a German threat of war, but she cannot acquiesce again. If Austria-Hungary sends troops south, it is probable that Russia will move, and if Russia moves Germany moves, and if Germany moves, France moves, and then— There you have the terrible tormenting circle of dread, which keeps Europe powerless and afraid.
    This vista of horror has been brought before us even during the last twenty-four hours by the menacing words of Count Berchtold, the Austrian Chancellor. He has reminded Europe in unmistakable words that "Austria-Hungary has in the Balkans weighty and vital interests, which we are determined to protect." These sent a thrill through Europe, for they were accompanied by the granting of a big defense vote.
    Meanwhile the Balkan States go on mobilizing and threatening war. Why not? Already they have gained much. The powers of Europe, deaf to the appeals of humanity, and absolutely indifferent to the sufferings of Macedonia as long as everybody was quiet and peaceful, are now in a quite different mood. They are hammering fiercely at the door of the Sick Man's room. They are urging him to take his medicine. For the moment their persuasions are mild, but when the possibilities of war become nearer and more terrible, then, after all, the powers may think that the moment has come to do something real. For if the powers begin to think that Macedonia is really going to be freed, they may, after all, think it best to free Macedonia themselves.
    The only great and effective recourse that lies in the hands of the powers at the present moment is to declare in favor of a Christian Government for Macedonia under their own control. Against such a declaration Turkey would be powerless, and the Balkan States could not move. The Balkan States would obtain what they were working for, and yet they would not have got what they wanted.
    Is there any power with the sufficiently high purpose and authority to make that proposal?
    If it were proposed, would Europe follow it?
    In the old days, it might have been proposed by Great Britain, but at the present moment Great Britain has become involved in the network of European diplomacy and seems to have lost the high and independent daring of the old Gladstonian faith.