Peace And After.

New York Times 100 years ago today, March 3, 1913:
    The dispatches from the other side of the Atlantic all indicate the near approach of peace in the Balkan Peninsula and definitely report extraordinary increase of expenditure in preparation for war. Now that the danger seems well past of a general European conflict as an outcome of the struggle in the Balkans, this hasty and strenuous addition to armaments shows a deep feeling of distrust as to the remoter future. It is a sign that a near and portentous element has entered into the problem of existence for all of the great Powers.
    That element undoubtedly is what is roughly described as the Balkan Federation, or more accurately the alliance of the three Balkan nations, Bulgaria, Servia, and Montenegro, with Greece. And what makes this element portentous is the fact that the allies have put more than a half million of well-equipped and trained men into the field, and, contrary to all expectations, have fought a substantially victorious war, which, in six months, has changed the map of Europe and made the famous "status quo" a matter of ancient history. The Powers which last October announced that, whatever happened, no serious change would ensue, six weeks ago warned Turkey that she must give up her European possessions, save her capital alone, and have, it appears, at last persuaded the Ottoman Government to put its case wholly in their hands, Meanwhile the various Powers whose interests were supposed to be hopelessly conflicting are trying, with apparent sincerity, to come to an understanding. Austria has made advances to Russia, which are met half way; Germany and England are approaching each other, the one laying aside, for the time, her claims in Asia Minor, and the other seeming to have been reassured as to "the road to India."
    But with all these peaceful auguries cheerfully proclaimed, Germany is straining her resources to the utmost to make an added expenditure of $300,000,000 on her armies, and France, planning to spend $100,000,000, is going back to a longer term of military service for her young men, involving a still greater economic burden, while the experts in England are urging constant increase in the navy and trying to introduce universal military training. Peace approaches and the chief nations as by a common impulse make ready at tremendous cost for war. Why? It is because the Balkan allies, with their actual and potential military force, have seriously changed the balance of power in Europe. No one knows what they will do; any one can see that they may do much, and the responsible statesmen feel forced to be prepared for any emergency. So far the disturbance has been felt most by the Triple Alliance. The part that Austria undertook to play in the earlier stages of the Balkan war was deeply offensive to Servia, and was hardly less so to Bulgaria. It compelled, or impelled, Russia to take an attitude that was seriously threatening, and probably only the influence of the German Kaiser, cordially backed by Great Britain, finally secured that understanding which for the present has relieved the strain. But the fact remains that Austria is the object of resentment and suspicion among the allies, and that in any trouble that may come to the Triple Alliance this might be a source of weakness. The necessity which Italy must feel to keep on good terms with her neighbors in the Mediterranean, with France and with Greece, now that she has assumed control of 'Tripoli, is also an element with which the Triple Alliance must reckon.
    It is these uncertainties that induce Germany to strengthen her army and France hers. They leave the ultimate prospect obscure and troubling. But it must be borne in mind that since last September the peace of Europe has been kept in the face of very grave difficulties and that apparently the nearer the Powers, armed to the teeth, come to war, the more they dread to enter upon it.