The Arena Of Europe.

New York Times 100 years ago today, November 27, 1912:
    The points of difference between the various European Powers, around which the flights of rumors are circling, are mainly these: The ambition of Servia as to territorial gains, including a port or ports on the Adriatic; the future of Albania, in which Servia, Austria, and Italy are most deeply interested, and the final terms that Turkey may make with the allies. The danger of extended war lies in the possible intervention of Russia in opposition to the purposes of Austria and in support of those of Servia.
    Despite the numerous reports of military preparation by Austria, by Russia, and by Germany, we regard it as extremely unlikely that war will come over any or all of these points. In the first place, two of them are not in themselves vital to the present or future interests of the Powers immediately concerned. All the serious and permanent advantages that Servia could get from the military possession of a port on the Adriatic could be secured by access to that sea guaranteed by a friendly agreement with Austria and by the great European Powers and by a mutually beneficial trade treaty. Assurance of an open and safe course for the commerce of both Powers to the Adriatic, and to the Aegean as well, would be of great and progressive value to both. Equally the independence or autonomy of Albania could be arranged for the common good of all concerned, whereas Albania, in whole or in part, in the hands of Servia would be a source of exhausting expenditure of strength and money and a constant menace to peace and order. It is not probable that Russia would care to place Servia in such a difficult position.
    On the other hand, Austria can hardly wish to make a permanent enemy of Servia if it can be avoided. She has a large Slav population, much of it just across the Servian border, with strong racial sympathy with the Serbs and with much cause for discontent and animosity toward the present Austrian Government. If she could have the choice — and it seems open to her — to arrange a free way for her commerce to the Adriatic and the Aegean through neutral or friendly territory, or to secure her way by conquest, leaving enemies on her flank, it is highly improbable that she would choose the latter. Again it is obvious that she could not choose war without the assured support of the other parties to the Triple Alliance. What is the reasonable inference as to this? We are convinced that such support will not be given, should Austria really ask for it.
    If it were given, it would necessarily call into the quarrel Russia and her associates in the Triple Entente. And not these alone. It is inconceivable that the Balkan allies would not stand by Servia in such a situation and the Triple Entente would become a quadruple one, to which the new party would bring armies, already in the field, 500,000 strong, and the navy of Greece. Supposing that it were practicable for the Triple Alliance to obtain the aid of Roumania, which by no means can be relied on, the struggle must still present itself to those tempted to bring it on as one of terrible magnitude and of appalling uncertainty. Considering these facts, and measuring soberly the relative unimportance to Austria of the claims she is reported to be making, we cannot believe that reason will not prevail.
    There remains the question of the terms on which Turkey and the Balkan allies can make peace. As to this, neither the sentiment nor the opinion of the various Powers, so far as manifested, shows any prospect of great difficulty. That Turkey will have to yield the greater part of her European possessions, that her title to Constantinople and an adjacent belt will be so modified as to secure an open way through the Dardanelles — these seem to be now inevitable conditions of peace. There is nothing in them that any European Power can find materially unacceptable. Conflicting interests there are, but since the alternative to adjusting them by a general agreement is general war, it is inconceivable that the adjustment will not be reached.