The Chances Of Peace.

New York Times 100 years ago today, November 4, 1912:
    Two issues only are possible now that Turkey has applied to the powers for mediation, with a view to the negotiation of peace. Either the armies of the Federation will enter Constantinople or the Turks will be able to stand them off long enough for the Powers to impose terms of peace. The former is the more probable, and would make the intervention of Europe more difficult and dangerous. In either case, however, the Powers can in the long run have their way if they can agree on a common plan, enforced by united action.
    The obstacles to this are many, but they ought not to be insurmountable. The most obvious and the hardest to deal with are the conflicting interests and ambitions of Austria and of Russia, and of these two Powers Austria has been the more aggressive and the more threatening. It was the act of Austria in tearing up the treaty of Berlin that broke the prestige and impaired the force of the concert of Europe and practically left Turkey exposed to the assault which the Balkan nations proceeded to plan and execute. Certainly the effect was not intended; just as certainly it came. In the tremendous upheaval that has taken place, with the domination of Turkey in Europe gone, will Austria now try to seize what she was content to wait for so long as Turkey, even if feebly, held it from the grasp of others? Will she seek a pathway through the wedge of territory that divides Montenegro from Servia to her objective, the Port of Salonika on the Aegean? That is the question of pressing urgency for which the statesmen of the other Powers anxiously demand an answer.
    Curiously enough, the answer will not, and hardly can, come from Austria. It must be given by Germany. As Austria would not, and could not, have seized Bosnia and Herzegovina and wiped out the Treaty of Berlin without assurance of German backing, so now she can, and will, make no further movement without like assurance. Can she have it? We think not. The situation is startlingly changed. When the former seizure was made, Russia, taken unawares, was helpless to meet the menace of German armies on her Austrian frontier, France and Great Britain were unprepared to aid her. No resistance to Austria could be made in the Balkans. To-day, in the Peninsula, instead of an enfeebled Turkey, Austria would face the Balkan Federation with victorious armies of half a million of men. And Germany, if she ventured to come to the aid of Austria, would have to reckon, not only with the Triple Entente, but possibly with Italy, and certainly with the Federation. What could she possibly gain from the contest that would ensue, even if victory should be attainable, that would offset the injury that would be inevitable? The rich fruits of forty years of industrial organization and progress would largely be destroyed. Her resources, developed by long and patient effort, would be deeply impaired. And if victory were not attained, her proud position in the world would be shaken and possibly destroyed. It is inconceivable that the German Emperor and his advisers would lay such priceless stakes upon the cast of "the iron dice" of a general conflict.
    But if the partition of the European provinces formerly under Turkish rule is not to be begun by Austrian aggression, what disposition can be made of them? They can, and should, be turned over to the Balkan Federation, with guarantees that would secure peace, order, and the advance of civilization, with the reservation of Constantinople as a free and neutral city, and with the opening of the Dardanelles to all nations. That is the path of Justice, and if the Powers adopt it it may be made the path of peace. Undoubtedly, it would leave unsatisfied some of the aspirations of Russia on the one hand, and, on the other, would give that Power advantages of which Germany and Austria would be jealous. But it would create a situation in Europe promising peace for a long time, from which the gain to all the nations concerned would be incalculable. Whether it can be secured depends primarily on Germany. We are confident that German enlightenment and humanity will range that great and powerful nation on the right side.