Turkey's Collapse Is Russia's Chance.

New York Times 100 years ago today, November 5, 1912:
Czar Can Now Absorb Persia at His Leisure, Says W. Morgan Shuster.
ALREADY IN FULL CONTROL
Now All Fear of the Moslem Is Gone and England Won't Meddle if Left Free in the Balkans.
    In the triumph of the Balkan Powers over Turkey W. Morgan Shuster, sometime Treasurer General of Persia, sees Russia's opportunity to hasten the proclamation of her sovereignty over Persia, a sovereignty which, according to Mr. Shuster, has for months existed in fact, if not in appearance, to the outside world. Mr. Shuster's information is to the effect that Russia has been quietly filling up the country with her own troops until now there is a force there big enough to cope with any situation that may arise.
    With England playing into Russia's hand in Persia for a long time in order to get St. Petersburg's support in whatever attitude she herself may take in a settlement of the Balkan situation and later in the readjustment of boundaries that may follow the present war, Russia has been doing as she pleased in the remoter Near East, Mr. Shuster says. The practical collapse of what was regarded us a powerful Turkish Army removes the last hindrance to Russia making bold acknowledgment of her rule in Persia.
    "The Balkan war and its outcome have a decided bearing on the situation in Persia, to this extent," said Mr. Shuster, at the Hotel Astor, last night,
    "For the past six or eight months, as nearly as I have been able to follow the situation from English newspapers and personal letters, the Russians have been pouring troops into Persia until now there are anywhere from 25,000 to 50,000 Russian soldiers in that country.
    "The reason it is so difficult to state their number with anything like accuracy is that communications are poor, Russia is in control of them, and it is no new thing for her officials deliberately to deceive even the British consulates and legation. I recall very clearly an instance where the British Minister was informed that in one small town in Northern Persia there was only one sotnia or company of Cossacks quartered, when, as it developed later, there were three or four times the number there.
    "So that whatever figures Russia may give out in no sense indicate the real situation. As to what this is and what she has been doing in Persia since last December we can only gather from correspondence and from the stories of people who have come back.
    "But Russia to-day practically occupies the whole north of Persia — fully two-thirds of the country, including Teheran, the capital. She is in absolute control of the situation, both from a political and a military standpoint.
    "England has been playing for Russia's moral support all along in the European situation — in case of 'eventualities,' as the diplomats put it.
    "The result has been that Russia has been forcing England's hand in Persia more and more, until now nothing remains to take place but a formal acknowledgment of Russia's sovereignty by the civilized powers. In other words, Russia is to-day the de facto Government in Persia.
    "The Balkan situation, with the doubt it produces as to the line-up of the European powers, which are unlimited, leaves Russia all the freer to hasten her absorption of Persia, without the risk of serious protest from the British Government.
    "In other words, England is playing to hold Russia in line with herself and France in any stand she may take on the settlement of the Balkan complications. The effect on Persia, therefore, is to hasten her end as a nation, and what might have taken some years to accomplish under normal circumstanced has already been brought about, through the critical situation in Europe, produced by the Balkan difficulties.
    "What settlement, what political and territorial readjustments will be the outcome in Europe, I do not venture to predict. It can readily be seen that it is to Russia's advantage, and her policy, to have the Balkan States successful. In other words, she can fish better in troubled waters.
    "So long as Europe is embroiled over these difficulties, Russia can pursue her near Eastern and far Eastern policies practically unhindered. Turkey has always been considered the military force of the Moslem nations, and has heretofore exercised some influence on the Persia situation because of her supposedly strong army. That influence has, however, now largely disappeared."