The Balkan Crisis.

New York Times 100 years ago today, October 27, 1912:
Russia's Ambition May Start European War, Says Alfred Mosely.
To the Editor of The New York Times:
    The situation at the present moment in Europe is exceedingly critical, and to understand the position it is necessary to go back certainly three or four years, although the Eastern question dates back a generation or more. Three or four years ago Austria thought that the moment was propitious to annex Bosnia and Herzegovina, and this action on her part was carried into effect with the co-operation of Germany. This came as a surprise to Europe, and was in reality the tearing up of the Treaty of Berlin, which had guaranteed the existence of those States. From the moment of this annexation the central European powers, such as Bulgaria, Servia, Greece, and Roumania, all felt that their position was insecure, and that at any moment trouble might arise. The populations of these countries therefore concluded that they must bury the hatchet and drop their own personal jealousies in order to protect their own interests.
    What gives rise to the importance of the present position is that these countries have come to a perfect understanding for offensive and defensive purposes, and that the fires of hatred which were smouldering have been suddenly aroused into activity in consequence of Turkey's weakness. It is well to remember that the great fundamental difference between Turkey and the Balkan States is religious. In other words, it is Mohammedanism versus Christianity, and this feeling, always bitter, is let loose in the present war.
    The nucleus of the danger, in my opinion, centres in Russia. What is she going to do? Her policy for the past two hundred years has been to seek a warm water outlet for her commerce, and after failure to secure this in the Mediterranean she turned her attention to the East, where Japan defeated her a few years ago. Now the question arises, will Russia consider the present moment opportune for returning to her old ambition and attempt to make personal capital out of the confused state of Turkey, which is so fully occupied in the Balkans? It is certainly to be hoped not. If Russia makes a move to seize Constantinople, the rest of Europe, and especially England, will not tolerate it, and if she commits a rash act by laying violent hands on Turkey's possessions Europe may be ablaze at any moment, and if the great powers come to blows it will set back business, civilization, and credit an indefinite number of years, and it will cause a shock to the development of the world such as few people can realize.
    Let us hope that the worst will not happen and that European diplomacy, which is so well aware of the vast interests at stake, will succeed in smoothing matters over and bringing the present disastrous war to a speedy conclusion.
    Turkey must be prepared to be reasonable and to keep the spirit as well as the letter of the Berlin Treaty. The Balkan States, on the other hand, must be moderate in their demands for concessions from Turkey, and it is in the bringing about of a reasonable attitude of mind on both sides that the prospects of peace lie.
            ALFRED MOSELY.
            New York, Oct. 25, 1912.