'13' Superstition Clouds New Year.

New York Times 100 years ago today, December 29, 1912:
Frederic Harrison. Turned Pessimist, Fears a Great European Conflict in 1913.
DREADS GERMAN AGGRESSION
And Urges the British Nation to Raise a $750,000,000 Loan to Strengthen Army and Navy.
BERLIN RECALLS PROPHECY
Russian Soothsayer Predicted Great Event in 1913, and the Hotheads Are Already Counting on War.
Special Cable to The New York Times.
    LONDON, Dec. 28.— Frederic Harrison, the noted historian and philosopher, appears in the rôle of a pessimist in an article in the January number of The English Review. In his survey of the international outlook the "thirteen" superstition has apparently exercised some influence over the veteran Positivist, who says: "It is, of course, merely fanciful and no one can regard it seriously that 1913 should mark a great recasting of the European State system, just as 1813 marked the downfall of Napoleon's imperial ambition, and just as 1713, by the peace of Utrecht, marked the collapse of the ascendancy of Louis XIV. A new century, plus that ominous thirteen, seems to have something in it of fate."
    Basing his forecast on the Balkan war, Mr. Harrison says that whatever may be the arrangements made at its close, they can be but temporary at best, and may only lay down the material for a struggle even more desperate and for changes even greater than those of this resettlement of international relations. He says:
    "What 1912 seems to have effected is a vast aggrandisement of the Slavonic races in their secular struggle against the Teutonic races. Even a local and temporary triumph of Austria over Servia cannot cancel the fact that henceforth the way southeast to the Black Sea and the Aegean Sea is barred to Germany." With this result of the war nothing outside of Europe, he says, is now open to Germany, and he proceeds:
    "But, alas! Europe is open and within touch, and even if occupied, offers magnificent fields for enterprise of all kinds. It is, therefore, inevitable that the mighty German Empire, swollen, perhaps, by the German part of Austria, will seek 'compensation' for its exclusion from places 'in the sun' within Europe itself. It has won compensations and accessions thrice before, in 1864, 1866, and 1870, and four or five times since by demanding fresh compensations it has brought Europe to the brink of war. We have to see what compensations it demands in 1913."
    As to the lines of German expansion, Mr. Harrison argues that there is imminent risk to Belgium, Northern France, and Holland, either one or all of which may be the object of assault, or, in the case of the Low Countries, of practical control without actual war.
    "We know," he remarks, "that a systematic preparation for this has long been made."
    Dealing with the question of how Germany's attempt at expansion should be met, Mr. Harrison expresses the opinion that to say that the British Navy is adequate to keep open the worldwide routes in the face of the perpetual increase of the German and Austrian navies is an "ignorant, almost insane, delusion." Therefore Great Britain requires a navy at least 30 per cent. stronger than she possesses, and also needs a European army of at least 250,000 long-service men, and about twice that number of reserves and territorials.
    Mr, Harrison adds that, impossible as it may seem, "I do deliberately advocate a new war loan of at least £150,000,000 to be spent freely at once, say £100,000,000 on the navy and £50,000,000 on the army."
    Furthermore, Mr. Harrison advocates a policy of concentration.
    "Let us draw in this empire," he says, "while there is yet time. Outlying provinces and conquests, however tempting, are no longer within our power to defend."
    In connection with this he says that the Mediterranean is now a mere trap, and adds:
    "The Mediterranean must be given up, stock and block, and with it, yes, even Gibraltar, Malta, Cyprus, and, of course, Egypt. For thirty years I have maintained that Egypt will be our death trap. It will be our grave if we seek to leave there 10,000, 20,000, or 30,000 good men, while we are fighting for our lives in Europe."
    Mr. Harrison makes this explanation of his attitude:
    "I am," he insists, "neither an alarmist nor faint of heart. I am an ardent lover of our fatherland and full of confidence in her sons' courage and strength. For forty years now I have foretold the German peril and have denounced the imperial adventures into which we have been misled, and I challenge my critics to show a point in which, in forty years, I have been false to our principles, or where my forecast has proved to be wrong."