The Dream Of Ferdinand.

New York Times 100 years ago today, December 29, 1912:
    Apparently "young men see visions" when they belong to the House of Hapsburg, and the vision of the Archduke Ferdinand, heir to the throne of Francis Joseph, as reported from Paris, is a splendid one. Whether it be correctly reported may be doubted, but its main features correspond to what is known of the Archducal views. His sympathies, as is apt to be the case with heirs apparent, are with the Opposition. He can hardly contemplate a coup d'état in Austria, because that would needlessly imperil his as yet uncrowned head, and because he cannot have very long to wait in order to ascend the throne and test the practicability of such plans as he may have formed.
    His chief reported purpose is the "liberation" of the discontented and ill-assorted peoples who form the monarchy. That will be no easy task. The Austrian Parliament, with which he would have first to deal, is at present composed of some fifteen different parties, whose members speak seven or eight different languages. The Germans, to whom his House is most intimately allied, are but little over 10,-000,000 strong and form less than a fourth of the population of the empire. The various branches of the Slav race number some 20,000,000, and are about 40 per cent. of that population. They are of very diverse character, tendencies, and capacities. They are scattered in a ring on the outskirts of the empire, surrounding the relatively homogeneous people of Hungary, with its core of energetic and determined Magyars. That autonomous kingdoms could be created from the various branches of the Slav races is extremely improbable.
    The story runs that the Archduke recognizes this fact and seeks to meet it by forming a confederation, of which the members would include the Balkan States, and especially Bulgaria, Servia, and Montenegro. Here the difficulties would obviously be very great, but there is in the plan the germ of an idea that might prove fruitful. If it were possible to frame a Federal Government that should embrace the whole Balkan peninsula, including Rumania, and if the basis of the federation should be made the common interest of all the peoples in industrial development and in freedom and growth of commerce, the result would be permanently beneficial. It is true that such a change would be resisted by the Germans in the northwest and by the Magyars in the centre of the empire, who would sink their own rivalries as against the evolution of races they dislike, generally despise, and have always ill-treated. But it is not impossible that the leaders of these vigorous peoples might come to see the great advantages likely to accrue to all from a combination on such a peaceful basis. One obstacle to such a union would be the long-cherished ambition of Russia to assume the headship of all the Slav races and, if possible, ultimately to assimilate them. But recent events have made the attainment of this desire substantially hopeless. The Balkan States have shown their readiness and their capacity to act independently. They have placed in the field armies of surprising strength and fighting power, and have won a series of victories that has amazed all Europe. They now manifest some disposition to settle in joint conference with the great Powers some points in international relations. They show none whatever to sink their independence or to fuse themselves with Russia. Given these national entities, developed and strengthened by common efforts and sacrifices that have been crowned with success, the whole future of the Near East may well be changed. It really is no longer a question of which of the great Powers shall extend its sway in that region. It is a question of what can be done in co-operation with the newly emerged Balkan States for the common advantage of Europe.
    In this situation the idea of wider federation, such as seems to have come to the Austrian heir apparent, may prove to be fruitful. If it should result in a league of peace, freedom of exchange, and mutual aid, it certainly would prove so. There is much reason to think that the old system of plotting and grabbing has come to an end. From the situation of helplessness to enforce the old system may arise a a new system, nobler and more fecund.