Hotheads Active In Berlin.

New York Times 100 years ago today, December 29, 1912:
Recall Ancient Prophecy, but the Kaiser Is Strongly for Peace.
Special Cable to The New York Times.
    BERLIN, Dec. 28.— Germany's holiday season has been somewhat marred by more predictions that Europe will be plunged into a great war within six months.
    Military and naval men are foremost in propagating this gloomy view, and some of the hotheads even go so far as to fix the date of hostilities for April at the latest. Others say that it will be postponed until Summer, asserting that the Kaiser has given his militant Austrian ally, the Archduke Franz Ferdinand, to understand that Germany will under no circumstances go to war until after the celebration of Emperor William's silver jubilee on June 15.
    When the members of the war party are asked why war is inevitable, they say that it will come as the irresistible climax of the period of strain under which Europe has lived for the last five years. Russian and Austrian antagonisms, they explain, will be the immediate cause, while the underlying motive will be the long-time feud between Slavism and Germanism, which, it is argued, must be fought out sooner or later, and may as well be settled now.
    Others assert that war must come in order to decide the burning question of German or British supremacy in Europe. Still another theory, which is being advanced, is that Austria-Hungary, having gone to such enormous expense to place her military establishment on a war footing, now requires a war which shall bring in some sort of return for her great financial sacrifices.
    Many are inspired by a prophecy dating back to 1849. In that year Emperor William I., then the young Crown Prince of Prussia, visited St. Petersburg. For his entertainment an old Russian soothsayer read his future. He was told that three of the most important events in German history would take place, respectively, in 1871, 1888, and 1913. In 1871 Germany defeated France and became an empire. The year 1880 was the three Kaisers' year, when the old Emperor died, only to be followed to the grave 100 days later by his son, Emperor Frederick. In 1913, the soothsayer said, Germany would be embroiled in a tremendous European war.
    As the predictions of 1871 and 1888 came true, a good many Germans, especially the less evenly balanced, believe that 1913 is to bear out the prophet's forecast.
    The fact cannot be too strongly emphasized, however, that the Kaiser himself is standing firm for the preservation of peace. His popularity with the army and navy, indeed, if one were to believe the irresponsible chatter heard nowadays among the younger officers in the drawing rooms and at the dinner tables of the season, has been considerably lessened by his insistence upon the defensive character of Germany's military and naval establishment.
    It is also pointed out that, although the supreme War Lord is exercising very great influence in the direction of peace, the army and navy are in a state of preparedness, such as they have never before attained. There is not the slightest doubt that they are ready at a moment's notice to strike a terrible blow in whatever direction their services may be required.
    The fighting spirit of officers and men was never more on edge. The alarm, engendered by the Balkan war, has caused a thorough overhauling of the German war machine.
    The war menace resulted in very serious reduction of Christmas trade in many branches of business. Establishments which depend on the custom of the wealthy classes have done a business this December hardly one-third of what they did a year ago. The great department stores admit that their trade has been almost cut in two, when compared with that of previous Yuletides. Everybody, rich and poor, seems to have hoarded money this Christmas instead of spending it.
    One of the pathetic effects of the pessimism in Berlin was the enormous quantity of unsold Christmas trees, left in the hands of the poor folk, who usually reap a harvest from their sale. Ordinarily, the stocks are depleted by Christmas Eve. This week trees, costing 50, 75 cents, or $1, went begging at 2 or 3 cents apiece.